Market chronicles

Publication author: Frédéric Laviron – Roussineau SA Potato market chronicle March 2018 All market chronicles It’s the end of the 6 Nations tournament, and our national team has blown hot and cold during the month of March, also marked by capricious weather: here are two beautiful images perfectly reflecting our ware potato market, indecisive, unbalanced and yet dynamic on new export markets.A shortage of potatoes? If we can agree on a European production surplus, there will (perhaps) be a shortage of potatoes! Indeed, storage lavabilities are deteriorating sharply with the appearance of flat faces, and our buyers are as demanding as ever in terms of quality; prices for this type of product could even rise until mid-June. A more stable market Eastern Europe and Germany should also be on the lookout for washable products, as the market imbalance is due solely to the excessive quantities of non-washable products. These storage problems could make for a more stable and longer market, especially as early production this year will be more limited (all origins combined). Market March 2018 Potatoes But there’s no need to claim victory! On-farm stocks are high and the market is complex; while some European supermarket chains are starting to make eyes at early potatoes, others still favor Locavore and therefore domestic goods, even if the quality is “borderline”. A difficult market for seed potatoes? The planting stock market is also difficult, with a lot of stocks and certainly a lot of unsold stock in many varieties; in mid-March, weather conditions did not allow early planting, and farmers are asking for postponements of deliveries. And if only this would give the market a boost…; but with a few “ifs”, we could have won the 6 Nations tournament…

Publication author: Christelle Denis – SARL D.Vegetables Potato market chronicle January 2018 All market chronicles As we begin 2018, I’d like to start by wishing all our readers and industry players a happy and prosperous New Year for our business. The start of the year continues the momentum of late 2017: an interesting start to the harvest thatslowed sharply in October to remain fairly sluggish even in December and early New Year. Production quality in general is holding steady, but with a tendency towards rapid sprouting that is sometimes difficult to contain. Firm-fleshed quantities are normal; sales are currently rather slow, but Germany should continue to buy until the end of the season. The advantage of low or fair prices will enable us this year to remain positioned in certain markets such as Italy, as opposed to last season when our fairly high selling prices helped German potatoes to penetrate the Italian market. A counter-blow to the potato market Our industry is suffering the backlash of two years of sustained prices and a craze for potatoes on the part of new growers; the market balance is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, and a few percent too much puts it out of balance. Our forecast for the season The ware potato season is likely to be a long one, especially if the downturn in consumption does not reverse itself! The arrival of a large number of new varieties with interesting visual and taste qualities proves that our sector remains dynamic, but doesn’t it risk distorting consumers’ bearings on the shelves? So our industry still has a lot of work to do to bring back and keep consumers in the fresh produce aisle, especially the younger ones. So many objectives for 2018!

Publication author: Jean-Marc Storper – SARL Maison Mendel Potato market chronicle November 2017 All market chronicles Nature’s over-generosity has given us a very surplus harvest (almost complete) of over two million tonnes in Western Europe (+21% in France, according to the UNPT). There have been some relatively serious storage problems, particularly with late-ripening apples, but this is relative to the forecast harvest.Positive aspects of the potato market On the positive side of the market, prices are helping Eastern European countries, as well as Italy and the Gulf States, to make early purchases in substantial volumes, which, barring major quality problems, should continue throughout the campaign. The French market lives to the rhythm of special offers, which daily weaken the traditional wholesale market a little more. Spain and Portugal on the market Spain and Portugal, which also harvested in excess, have been much less present until now, handicapped as usual at the start of the campaign by logistical problems. Things seem to be returning to normal recently. But given the quantities on offer, customers are increasingly demanding in terms of quality, hence the numerous disputes reported. Increasing export volumes With the industry content to load up its contracts, this is a campaign that would require major export releases, to give the market some breathing space. It’s worth noting that despite a 24% increase in export volumes to September 2017, due to the price stall, value figures are down 11%. Margins have been squeezed. Cash-flow problems among traders, who often pay in advance for seedlings and inputs, and who can’t pay themselves back from consumption… are likely to take their toll. In this very complicated context, I wish you all a good campaign! Jean-Marc Storper Jean-Marc Storper (Vice-President of the SNCPT) has run Maison Mendel for over 30 years. The company specializes in potato and onion brokerage. Present on the national market as well as on all import (Israel, Morocco, Southern Europe) and export (throughout Europe) markets. He is a sworn goods broker for the Nîmes Court of Appeal, and a RUCIP expert and arbitrator.

Publication author: Christelle Denis – SARL D.Vegetables Potato market chronicle September 2017 All market chronicles Since 2014, French growers have been warned: “don’t increase your production areas for the fresh market”. A vain recommendation, and what had to happen happened in 2017: more surface area and yields that are 10-15% higher overall.Some potato news The limited yields of the 2015 and 2016 harvests translated into higher prices in 2015, and completely unrealistic prices in 2016. And what a disaster! Disappearance of certain buyers, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom, Eastern countries… They preferred to buy potatoes rather than gold nuggets. Business is simple. It’s based on trust and win-win relationships. We have to admit that if we have lost our Italian friends over the last two years, it’s because they are starting to take inspiration from the French model, terroir and local production. For everyday consumption, they preferred to buy from Germany. The English traded with the Belgians and the Dutch, and a little with the Germans, where a tonne was €80 to €100 cheaper on average. All these volumes that we didn’t sell correspond to fridges still full in May in the great plains, and misery at the end of the road… When will we see a scrapping premium for old stocks! Produce retailers and quality Early marketers who work on taste and quality have had a field day. Early-season sales plummeted, with supermarkets under pressure from the main French marketers to clear their stocks of old potatoes, and a delay of several weeks in putting all those wonderful early potatoes from our French terroirs on the shelves. With some delay, early marketers have almost succeeded in selling their production. It’s worth remembering that the early season is used as a reference for the price of the coming season: this year, it’s a fiasco. Low market prices Let’s remain optimistic, and remember that the potato is still present on our plates, but in smaller quantities. Prices are so low that Africa and Eastern Europe are asking questions and may even buy. Volumes will leave for Southern Europe once logistical difficulties are resolved. Let’s take advantage of these opportunities, even if prices are very low, to get all the surplus out of here.

Publication author: Yves Le Bouëdec – J. Lévesque SARL Potato market chronicle July 2017 All market chronicles We had thought that with this 2016 harvest, we would run out of quality lots at the end of the season. We thought that the upcoming early harvest campaign would barely arrive in time to meet demand. And then, patatras! All that is shattered by the large remaining stocks at the end of the season.Improving the industry All those fine words about improving the industry and segmentation of quality – why all that? To see potato promotions in September with last year’s harvest? Run for your lives! We can always talk about taste, but if we don’t know how to respect seasonality, nobody stands to gain. High prices As far as plantings are concerned, there’s another problem. With the increase in planted areas, everyone is speculating so that the other will suffer a climatic hazard. It’s difficult to regulate this in a generally uncertain agricultural context, but it promises to be a good crisis to come. That said, we’re coming off a complicated year which saw the average price per kilo rise. At the same time, we’ve never seen the French fry industry buy so much in such large volumes. From now on, they’ll be setting the tone for the campaign. In the meantime, I wish you all a great summer, and for the lucky ones, a happy vacation!

Publication author: Silvana Paolozzi – Ets Jacques Albert Potato market chronicle May 2017 All market chronicles With the end of the conservation campaign, the early harvest has already arrived, and the earliness of the crop is making up for the delay in markets from Spain. Rainfall across Europe has partially made up for the water deficit that had built up since the beginning of the year. Italy, Portugal and Spain are now focusing on new potatoes. The consumer market is sluggish, with a downward trend.June sales prospects look uncertain.2017 – 2018 potato season We can already look ahead to the 2017-2018 campaign. Plantings were higher in the NEPG, by around 3.6%, and we fear we’ll end up with far too many potatoes. This has been a very special year, with strong demand from the industry due to the lack of yields saving the day, and prices holding at a very good level. Growers were lucky. Potato exports On the export front, the situation was not good, with sales down among our long-standing customers. Italy, Germany and Poland, unlike France, had favorable weather with very good yields, and we were no longer competitive with these producer countries, particularly Germany and Poland, with price differentials of €50-100/tonne. These countries are developing habits, and this isn’t the first year we’ve found ourselves in this situation. The “made in” trend The “Made in” trend is also penalizing us. The most striking example comes from Italy, where our second largest customer is down 30%. They’ve practically been able to take care of themselves. Let’s not forget that these countries are increasingly equipped with refrigerated warehouses and high-tech equipment. Their quality is also improving. The vagaries of the weather certainly lead to situations in our favor or against us. We have to be vigilant to keep our long-standing customers, who include Spain and Italy, as well as Germany and others, who also have the same state of mind. Without industry, what would prices have been?

Publication author: Frédéric Laviron – Roussineau SA Site internet Roussineau Potato market chronicle March 2017 All market chronicles While spring heralds the first arrivals of early potatoes from Egypt and Israel, it’s clear that all operators are still working hard to market their stocks in the fridge, the essential complexity being to maintain continuity of quality and delivery with their customers. While beautiful washable batches with no major defects should still be valued until the end of May, we are still seeing a certain inertia and lack of dynamism, an annual sign of the difficulty of finding the right quality-price ratio in a context of high prices.A drop in potato consumption in Europe? The end of the campaign should bring us a few more uncertainties, but I keep in mind that a market is always more difficult to understand when prices are high. Can you give us an initial assessment of the campaign? The Eastern European countries, Germany and Italy, were only marginally present at the buying stage. Germany and Poland were even our competitors for Italy, offering lower quality but much more attractive prices. While consumption of fresh potatoes in Europe has fallen, French packers have mainly been working on promotional tenders, without much fanfare. Europe, potatoes and consumption France remains Spain and Portugal’s main trading partner, despite competition from the Netherlands, which offers cheaper potatoes and tight logistics. As far as the planting season is concerned, few varieties are available for consumption, and none for processing. Deliveries are in progress.

Publication author: Christelle Denis – SARL D.Vegetables Potato market chronicle January 2017 As we begin 2017, I’d like to start by wishing all readers and industry players a prosperous year for potatoes. The start of the year continues the momentum of late 2016: production of ware potatoes in France has fallen slightly compared with the 2015-2016 campaign, and prices since the start of the 2016-2017 campaign have remained at a high level. Themanufacturers are finding it difficult to meet their contracts, which is having an impact on ware potato prices. Nevertheless, volumes remaining in stock at the end of 2016 are almost identical to stocks at the same period in N-1 and N-2. A calm start to the potato market Production is undoubtedly delighted to be getting high prices, but this is not without consequences in the more or less long term. Indeed, the beginning of the year remains calm in terms of buying, even if all customers, French and foreign, are buying, but in smaller proportions. High production prices are having an impact on consumer prices. For several years now, there has been a clear downturn in household purchases of fresh potatoes. High prices Excessively high prices and households less inclined to peel potatoes are detrimental to the sale of our products; on the other hand, processed products and our main competitors, pasta and rice, benefit from this windfall. We need to keep an eye on this phenomenon to prevent fresh potatoes from losing their place on store shelves! Potato market 2017 Let’s not forget that potatoes are still a basic product, so we mustn’t get too carried away when it comes to prices! We can be sure that this season’s stocks will sell without too much difficulty, but with the euphoria, it’s to be feared that the 2017-2018 season will see an increase in production, which would also lead to a very sharp drop in prices! Watch out for the pendulum effect…

Publication author: Jean-Marc Storper – SARL Maison Mendel Potato market chronicle November 2016 All market chronicles Harvesting and field work were completed under optimal conditionsconditions throughout the North. And here we are in a calm market with prices of a firmness rarely seen at the same time of year.Any variety with a dry matter suitable for industry is the prey of industrialists, who are gradually capturing most of the lots… leaving Northern traders, supplying the fresh market, often on the verge of running out of stock at the end of the day. Autumn too mild for the market Faced with an excessively mild autumn, the fresh produce market is struggling to catch its breath. Volumes are stagnating. In a market that is not very keen on supply, very firm, and too long poorly supplied due to complicated grubbing-up, consumption of fresh potatoes is falling back. On the export market, Spain still finds, depending on the location, domestic products delivered at a lower price than our ex-factory prices! Only premium batches of Monalisa, Agata and Melody are charging. But beware of internal strikes and disputes! Germany supplies Italy at lower prices. Polish potatoes, despite “phytosanitary barriers” and varieties that are often unknown in the West, remain very attractively priced. Better prices for the second half of the market season? Agata are virtually unavailable, except at prices that are impractical for the time being. Nor are firm meats. Given yields, farmers are hoping for better prices in the second half of the season. In this context, nothing is written for the rest of the campaign. Beware of overconfidence!

Publication author: Frédéric Laviron – Roussineau SA Potato market chronicle September 2016 All market chronicles “He who speaks sows, he who listens reaps” Pythagoras The rainy spring and overly dry summer brought a touch of uncertainty to a potato market whose fundamentals were already sound at the end of May. In fact, while harvesting was delayed by an average of 2 weeks, stocks from the old crop were exhausted, enabling the early season to run smoothly. Any variety with a dry matter suitable for industry is the prey of industrialists, who are gradually capturing most of the batches… leaving traders in the North, supplying the fresh market, often on the verge of running out of stock at the end of the day. The fresh produce market, faced with an excessively mild autumn, is struggling to catch its breath. Volumes are not going out. In a market that is not very keen on supply, very firm, and too long poorly supplied due to complicated grubbing-up, consumption of fresh potatoes is falling back. On the export market, Spain still finds, depending on the location, domestic products delivered at a lower price than our ex-factory prices! Only “premium” batches of Monalisa, Agata and Melody are charging. But beware of internal strikes and disputes! Germany supplies Italy at lower prices. Polish potatoes, despite “phytosanitary barriers” and varieties that are often unknown in the West, remain very attractively priced. Agata are hardly offered at all, except at prices that are immediately unaffordable. Neither are firm meats. Given yields, farmers are hoping for better prices in the second half of the season. In this context, nothing is written for the rest of the campaign. Beware of overconfidence! Some market figures While the general consensus in France is for a 3.5% increase in acreage, the latest yield estimates point to a significant drop (-7%), particularly for early varieties. French economic players are worried that they won’t be able to fill their fridges, which means that prices will remain high for the start of the season. The year’s growing conditions are also being criticized, leaving some uncertainty as to presentation qualities, with dry matter measured at over 26%. Nevertheless, there should be no shortage of potatoes in Europe, with Germany predicting a good harvest in the north and a more average one in the south; the English, Belgians and Dutch are predicting average yields. French seed potato harvest September 2016 So are we alone in Europe in thinking about good sales prospects this year? “Truth is not accuracy” wrote Octave Mirbeau. My truth is that prices are likely to remain at the same level until March-April, in a market that is traditionally buoyant towards the South; sales prospects in Eastern Europe and Italy, at the start of the campaign, are virtually nil, given that Germany is offering its crop at much lower prices and Poland is announcing a good harvest (in volume at least). Even so, the hole left by the cereal harvest in farm balance sheets could prompt some producers to take advantage of early-season prices. Finally, the French seed potato harvest is also expected to be smaller than the previous one.