Market chronicles

Publication author: Fréderic Laviron – Site internet Roussineau Potato market chronicle January 2019 All market chronicles What if 2019 brought a breath of fresh air? There are so many challenges ahead – technological, regulatory, qualitative – that this second half of the potato marketing year could prove unique. Everyone agrees that we should be able to market the entire French production without difficulty before June.A dynamic start to the year on the market Export figures are good overall, and will undoubtedly remain buoyant towards our neighboring countries, albeit with strong variations in acceptance of high prices, particularly in Italy. The start of the year has been marked by unexpectedly dynamic demand, particularly from Greece. But the problems lie elsewhere: strong industrial demand is disrupting the fresh potato market, and it is sometimes impossible to meet foreign demand for bag-brushed fritable varieties; the foreseeable end of CIPC marketing and use will lead to profound varietal changes, with the choice of producing longer-life varieties, while the use of more expensive alternative preservatives remains marginal today. What about marketing our production after April? Are we ready to reduce our production area to make way for French early produce or imported products from the Mediterranean basin? Will we lose our leadership in fresh potato exports to Europe? What new varieties for what market? The demand for residue analysis by supermarkets is accelerating. Today, there is a real shortage of seed potatoes, of the order of 15 to 20%, for the next season. And yet, as plant breeders take exact stock of what’s available, it doesn’t appear that the area planted will decrease… in fact, it may even increase. Paradoxical, isn’t it? A generous nature? Have we already forgotten that we sold out our 2017 production in September 2018, all over Europe? I like to remind you that, if prices are high this year, this is exclusively linked to a very sharp drop in yields in northern European countries, due to drought. If nature is generous in 2019, another challenge awaits us…

Publication author: Christelle Denis – SARL D.Vegetables Potato market chronicle November 2018 All market chronicles The harvest is drawing to a close, and the atypical situation is confirmed on both the French and European markets. NPEG is announcing a shortfall of several million tonnes of potatoes across Europe.A complicated potato market Quality is also deteriorating rapidly, while prices remain high due to pressure from manufacturers. Operators (growers, traders, etc.) are thus torn between selling as quickly as possible for fear of a change in quality, and holding onto volumes until spring in order to supply all customers. Clearly, not only are volumes likely to be insufficient to meet demand, but we are already seeing an early change in quality (dartrose, scab). Drought and shortage Without wishing to be alarmist, we have never experienced such a drought-related situation, but the impact of this shortage is likely to be felt well into next season; if seed potato production follows that of consumption, the shortage may be felt on this market too. And what about next spring? Will other regions of the Mediterranean basin take advantage of this shortage to offer us more tubers than in previous years? In conclusion, this upcoming campaign is nothing like previous ones!

Publication author: Jean-Marc Storper – SARL Maison Mendel Potato market chronicle September 2018 All market chronicles All potato professionals have taken on board the deficit context of the coming harvest. The UNPT has announced the lowest average 2018 yield ever recorded on their samples since 2001.The market’s two great unknowns At this stage of the harvest, the two great unknowns are : The quality and size of harvests of late varieties in irrigated regions, namely Nord Pas-de-Calais and Seine Maritime, but also Belgium and Holland (the big reservoirs of friable potatoes for industrial destinations);Their storage capacity, which we won’t be able to assess until the end of November. Indeed, what will be the consequences of the regrowth (or re-twinning) phenomenon on product preservation? Irrigated regions (Beauce, Champagne, Picardy), which are much more oriented towards the fresh market, seem to have much smaller deficits.The potato industry The problem is the industry. How will it manage this deficit? Will they have to go on strike? Will we have to import? And from where? Given that Europe as a whole seems to be suffering from the same ailment… which even seems to be global. Against this backdrop, potato prices are genuinely firm. Beware of holding back or excessive speculation, prices are high. Beware of storage problems, which are a real risk at these prices, and above all beware of your customers’ solvency, which can be fatal! In this complicated context, the SNCPT brokers, with their experience and professionalism, are at your disposal.

Publication author: Yves Le Bouëdec – J. Lévesque SARL Potato market chronicle July 2018 All market chronicles The weight of last year’s volumes is still weighing on the start of the new early harvest in Europe. Ripening has been delayed by at least 15 days in southern and western France. Demand for new tubers is strong for ripe produce, and supply is still low. As for the new ware potato harvest, let’s look to the skies in anticipation of a new campaign which, given the hectares planted, looks set to be a major one. We all hope it won’t be a second year of the same thing.Potato seeds In France, potato seed plantings are up by around 5%. The multiplication of new varieties is a major factor in these figures. The concentration of players in this market is increasing, with most of them European, and the division of production risk for these companies benefits French plantings. The highest growth rate is attributed to varieties intended for processing (+26%). Potato exports For both seed and consumption, our ability to export remains decisive. Eastern European and Mediterranean countries have a young population to feed. These remain a market in which we must consolidate our commercial relations. Looking forward to the new campaign, I wish you all a wonderful summer!

Publication author: Silvana Paolozzi – Ets Jacques Albert Potato market chronicle May 2018 All market chronicles A disappointing campaign… However, we are currently feeling the effects of the low prices observed this year: a godsend? Sales have rebounded, particularly in Eastern Europe, which has helped us to release varieties and qualities that were not suitable for other markets. Our export figures are therefore positive.Consumer demands The local policy is upsetting and disrupting our habits. Climate change, our new culinary lifestyles and organic farming are forcing us to rethink everything in order to adapt to consumer demands. Consumers are demanding quality and food safety, not quantity. All this forces us to question ourselves. Forecast for the 2018-2019 potato season At present, there is still strong demand for exports, and there are still some goods available, but they do not meet the quality standards of our historical buyers. Fortunately, we’re seeing a delay in early sales in general. We’ll be doing the end-of-drawer business, no doubt with a shortfall, which is likely to have an impact on the start of the campaign. In conclusion, it’s still too early to define the 2018-2019 campaign. However, some figures have already been released, and it would appear that there will not be a significant drop in surface areas. In fact, the 5 producing countries are steadily increasing compared to previous years. NPEG forecasts a slight increase, so the drop won’t be obvious, but we all know that the weather can change everything. Early crops will be late everywhere, and heavy rains in some countries in April will undoubtedly delay the new harvest, and because of the delay in early crops, we can expect a difficult lean season.

Publication author: Frédéric Laviron – Roussineau SA Potato market chronicle March 2018 All market chronicles It’s the end of the 6 Nations tournament, and our national team has blown hot and cold during the month of March, also marked by capricious weather: here are two beautiful images perfectly reflecting our ware potato market, indecisive, unbalanced and yet dynamic on new export markets.A shortage of potatoes? If we can agree on a European production surplus, there will (perhaps) be a shortage of potatoes! Indeed, storage lavabilities are deteriorating sharply with the appearance of flat faces, and our buyers are as demanding as ever in terms of quality; prices for this type of product could even rise until mid-June. A more stable market Eastern Europe and Germany should also be on the lookout for washable products, as the market imbalance is due solely to the excessive quantities of non-washable products. These storage problems could make for a more stable and longer market, especially as early production this year will be more limited (all origins combined). Market March 2018 Potatoes But there’s no need to claim victory! On-farm stocks are high and the market is complex; while some European supermarket chains are starting to make eyes at early potatoes, others still favor Locavore and therefore domestic goods, even if the quality is “borderline”. A difficult market for seed potatoes? The planting stock market is also difficult, with a lot of stocks and certainly a lot of unsold stock in many varieties; in mid-March, weather conditions did not allow early planting, and farmers are asking for postponements of deliveries. And if only this would give the market a boost…; but with a few “ifs”, we could have won the 6 Nations tournament…

Publication author: Christelle Denis – SARL D.Vegetables Potato market chronicle January 2018 All market chronicles As we begin 2018, I’d like to start by wishing all our readers and industry players a happy and prosperous New Year for our business. The start of the year continues the momentum of late 2017: an interesting start to the harvest thatslowed sharply in October to remain fairly sluggish even in December and early New Year. Production quality in general is holding steady, but with a tendency towards rapid sprouting that is sometimes difficult to contain. Firm-fleshed quantities are normal; sales are currently rather slow, but Germany should continue to buy until the end of the season. The advantage of low or fair prices will enable us this year to remain positioned in certain markets such as Italy, as opposed to last season when our fairly high selling prices helped German potatoes to penetrate the Italian market. A counter-blow to the potato market Our industry is suffering the backlash of two years of sustained prices and a craze for potatoes on the part of new growers; the market balance is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, and a few percent too much puts it out of balance. Our forecast for the season The ware potato season is likely to be a long one, especially if the downturn in consumption does not reverse itself! The arrival of a large number of new varieties with interesting visual and taste qualities proves that our sector remains dynamic, but doesn’t it risk distorting consumers’ bearings on the shelves? So our industry still has a lot of work to do to bring back and keep consumers in the fresh produce aisle, especially the younger ones. So many objectives for 2018!

Publication author: Jean-Marc Storper – SARL Maison Mendel Potato market chronicle November 2017 All market chronicles Nature’s over-generosity has given us a very surplus harvest (almost complete) of over two million tonnes in Western Europe (+21% in France, according to the UNPT). There have been some relatively serious storage problems, particularly with late-ripening apples, but this is relative to the forecast harvest.Positive aspects of the potato market On the positive side of the market, prices are helping Eastern European countries, as well as Italy and the Gulf States, to make early purchases in substantial volumes, which, barring major quality problems, should continue throughout the campaign. The French market lives to the rhythm of special offers, which daily weaken the traditional wholesale market a little more. Spain and Portugal on the market Spain and Portugal, which also harvested in excess, have been much less present until now, handicapped as usual at the start of the campaign by logistical problems. Things seem to be returning to normal recently. But given the quantities on offer, customers are increasingly demanding in terms of quality, hence the numerous disputes reported. Increasing export volumes With the industry content to load up its contracts, this is a campaign that would require major export releases, to give the market some breathing space. It’s worth noting that despite a 24% increase in export volumes to September 2017, due to the price stall, value figures are down 11%. Margins have been squeezed. Cash-flow problems among traders, who often pay in advance for seedlings and inputs, and who can’t pay themselves back from consumption… are likely to take their toll. In this very complicated context, I wish you all a good campaign! Jean-Marc Storper Jean-Marc Storper (Vice-President of the SNCPT) has run Maison Mendel for over 30 years. The company specializes in potato and onion brokerage. Present on the national market as well as on all import (Israel, Morocco, Southern Europe) and export (throughout Europe) markets. He is a sworn goods broker for the Nîmes Court of Appeal, and a RUCIP expert and arbitrator.

Publication author: Christelle Denis – SARL D.Vegetables Potato market chronicle September 2017 All market chronicles Since 2014, French growers have been warned: “don’t increase your production areas for the fresh market”. A vain recommendation, and what had to happen happened in 2017: more surface area and yields that are 10-15% higher overall.Some potato news The limited yields of the 2015 and 2016 harvests translated into higher prices in 2015, and completely unrealistic prices in 2016. And what a disaster! Disappearance of certain buyers, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom, Eastern countries… They preferred to buy potatoes rather than gold nuggets. Business is simple. It’s based on trust and win-win relationships. We have to admit that if we have lost our Italian friends over the last two years, it’s because they are starting to take inspiration from the French model, terroir and local production. For everyday consumption, they preferred to buy from Germany. The English traded with the Belgians and the Dutch, and a little with the Germans, where a tonne was €80 to €100 cheaper on average. All these volumes that we didn’t sell correspond to fridges still full in May in the great plains, and misery at the end of the road… When will we see a scrapping premium for old stocks! Produce retailers and quality Early marketers who work on taste and quality have had a field day. Early-season sales plummeted, with supermarkets under pressure from the main French marketers to clear their stocks of old potatoes, and a delay of several weeks in putting all those wonderful early potatoes from our French terroirs on the shelves. With some delay, early marketers have almost succeeded in selling their production. It’s worth remembering that the early season is used as a reference for the price of the coming season: this year, it’s a fiasco. Low market prices Let’s remain optimistic, and remember that the potato is still present on our plates, but in smaller quantities. Prices are so low that Africa and Eastern Europe are asking questions and may even buy. Volumes will leave for Southern Europe once logistical difficulties are resolved. Let’s take advantage of these opportunities, even if prices are very low, to get all the surplus out of here.

Publication author: Yves Le Bouëdec – J. Lévesque SARL Potato market chronicle July 2017 All market chronicles We had thought that with this 2016 harvest, we would run out of quality lots at the end of the season. We thought that the upcoming early harvest campaign would barely arrive in time to meet demand. And then, patatras! All that is shattered by the large remaining stocks at the end of the season.Improving the industry All those fine words about improving the industry and segmentation of quality – why all that? To see potato promotions in September with last year’s harvest? Run for your lives! We can always talk about taste, but if we don’t know how to respect seasonality, nobody stands to gain. High prices As far as plantings are concerned, there’s another problem. With the increase in planted areas, everyone is speculating so that the other will suffer a climatic hazard. It’s difficult to regulate this in a generally uncertain agricultural context, but it promises to be a good crisis to come. That said, we’re coming off a complicated year which saw the average price per kilo rise. At the same time, we’ve never seen the French fry industry buy so much in such large volumes. From now on, they’ll be setting the tone for the campaign. In the meantime, I wish you all a great summer, and for the lucky ones, a happy vacation!